Premiership Betting Review – 23 April 2006

Sports Betting is a way that professional “smart money” gamblers make money. One of the most overlooked ways to make money from sports betting is by understanding the teams, and how they will play in different weather conditions.

Let’s look at an example of my analysis of a game where the teams were expected to play in a driving rainstorm:

Oakland at Seattle -7 This game presents a bit of a mystery since Seattle is playing without their #1 QB and without their #1 running back. This means that all the previous stats, etc., are pretty much meaningless in terms of handicapping this game. Generally speaking, I like to stay away from games like this because they are typically what I call “coin flip” games -that is there isn’t enough data to determine if the odds are in your favor or not.

However… this game may be an exception. Let me explain why.

First and foremost, Seattle’s defense took them to the Super Bowl last year, but they’ve stunk out the joint this year. In Seattle’s last 5 games, they’ve given up 35, 31, 28, 37, and 42 points. This may be the most stunning surprise of this season. And who did they give up this many points to? High-powered teams like Indianapolis? Nope. They gave up these points to KC, Minnesota, St. Louis, Chicago, and the Giants. Sure, these teams are decent, but keep in mind Minnesota could barely score against SF, and the other teams have been inconsistent on offesne all season -except when they played Seattle. In their two early wins the defense looked good, but keep in mind those games were against Arizona and Detroit.

Oakland on the other hand has played horrible all season on offense. They managed just 98 total yards against Pittsburgh, a team that’s been abused defensively all season. Oakland is averaging only 123 yards per game passing, which is really astonishing considering they’ve been in many games where they needed to play catch-up and still couldn’t manage to rack up many yards, even against other team’s prevent defense. It’s even more astonishing considering that they have Randy Moss to throw to. Moss should at least get some double-coverage which you’d think would free up somebody, somewhere in the secondary.

It used to be that classic games pitted the immovable force vs. the unstoppable object. This game is the exact opposite. It’s the inept offense vs. the inept defense. Oakland is ranked dead last in the NFL in offense. Seattle is ranked 29th in defense. Who know’s what’s going to happen?

Well, we don’t know exactly what’s going to happen in the game, but what we do know about is the weather. It’s pouring in Seattle today, and they’re expecting 2 inches of rain. The wind is at 18 mph, gusting to 23 mph. The field is covered, but it’s going to be VERY sloppy tonight and very windy. The rain is expected to get heavier by tonight’s 5:30 pm PST start (8:30 EST).

Now there are two schools of thought on this. The first is that the sloppy conditions will lead to more turnovers, and make it easier to pass because the receivers know where they’re going, but the defenders have to react. Plus, UFABET  the sloppy conditions are going to lead to possibly more turnovers, etc. But this cuts both ways. The turnovers could easily come when a team is knocking on the door about to score as they could when they’re backed up near their own goal line. The other school of thought is that the weather is going to make it next to impossible to move the ball and score. This is why the o/u line is sitting at 36.

The o/u line is also sitting at 36 because Seattle QB Senaca Wallace has one of the most pathetic QB ratings possible, a measly 59.0. I say “one of the most pathetic” QB ratings because Oakland’s QB Andrew Walter has an ever worse rating at 49.0. This may be lowest combined QB ratings of any game in the NFL.

So what’s this all mean? First, it means that Seattle has the edge because of Seneca Wallace. Wallace, unlike Walter, is like having an extra back in the backfield. Oakland’s defensive line is going to have problems with their footing, and when they do break into the backfield, Wallace is going to be quick to sprint forward out of the pocket and the Raider defenders are going to be helpless to react on the wet turf. Wallace stinks throwing the ball anyway so the wind isn’t going to affect him as much as it’s going to affect Walter, a more classic drop-back QB.

So the bottom line is this. I do NOT recommend even playing this game because there are too many unknowns. However, if you really feel like you must take a side on this game I look for Oakland to have trouble scoring, probably scoring in the single digits. I look for Seattle to be able to move the ball on the ground, especially with Wallace running the ball out of the pocket. With all this in mind, I look for Seattle to win 17-6.

What really happened in this game? Seneca Wallace, Seattle’s QB, had 49 yards rushing, including a key run of 37 yards. Seattle won 16-0.

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